Congo Economic Outlook
- Renewed activity in Brazzaville’s industrial zone and the continuation of the public investment programme should drive growth in 2012.
- Support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made it possible to re-establish macroeconomic stability.
- The overall national level of unemployment is estimated at 16%: that of young people 25%.
The economic prospects for Congo remain favourable for 2012 and 2013. They are predicated on the start of production by at least half of the 16 industries at present being established in the Brazzaville industrial zone and the continuation of the public investment programme, which envisages a real rise of 55% in capital spending in 2012.
Major reforms have been set in motion in the framework of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative but the main challenge faced by the government is to maintain the overall rhythm of the reforms. Governance of the extractive industries sector has been improved and a new code for public procurement adopted. A commitment has been made to fiscal reform and a general action plan to improve the business climate was adopted in February 2011. Notwithstanding these advances Congo still faces major challenges, in particular the economy’s heavy dependence on the oil sector which makes it highly vulnerable to external shocks and explains the weak effect growth has on employment.
The national unemployment rate is put at 16%. But 25% of those in the 15 to 29 age group have no work and the figure rises to more than 42% if those who have been so discouraged that they are no longer looking for a job are included. The high level of unemployment among young people is the result of a number of factors: the poor quality of the education and training systems, a policy of guaranteed jobs in the public sector which has left young people lacking sufficient skills for the private sector, and the lack of an entrepreneurial culture. To these should be added the inadequate number of jobs created in the formal sector because the economy is not diversified enough and because of an environment which is far from favourable to the development of the private sector.
