Kenya Economic Outlook

  • Real GDP growth was 5.3% in 2014, while the 2015 estimate and the 2016 and 2017 projections show economic expansion of 5.5%, 6.0%, and 6.4% respectively.
  • In 2014 and 2015, the economy experienced a stable macroeconomic environment, with single-digit inflation despite a 10.0% currency depreciation in 2015. At the same time, calls to amend the constitution to increase finances to the 47 county governments dominated the political scene.
  • Kenya is set to experience rapid urbanisation in the foreseeable future.

GDP growth remained robust in 2014 at 5.3%. The expansion of construction, manufacturing, finance and insurance, information, communications and technology, and wholesale and retail trade buoyed GDP. The economy slowed in the first half of 2015, but growth is estimated to have reached 5.5% by year-end. As shown in the table below, overall GDP growth prospects are 6.0% and 6.4% for the years 2016 and 2017 respectively. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation projections remain at around 6.0% over the same period. The short- to medium-term positive growth projections are based on the assumptions of increased rainfall and enhanced agricultural production, a stable macroeconomic environment, continued low international oil prices, the stability of the Kenya shilling (KES), improved security boosting tourism and reforms in governance and justice.

Political activity in 2015 continued to centre on two areas: a call by the opposition party, Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), to amend the constitution and county governments seeking to raise national government financial transfers from 15% to 45%.