Morocco Economic Outlook
- Sustained interior demand and a good performance by the agriculture sector should make it possible to maintain a stable level of growth in 2012 and 2013.
- The position of the state has been strengthened by the new constitution.
- Unemployment among young graduates remains high because of a mismatch between training and real demand and the inability of the public sector to satisfy the demand for jobs it generates.
Morocco’s sustained growth should be maintained in 2012 and 2013, relying simultaneously on an effective model of economic opening and liberalisation, a boom in the agricultural sector and a dynamism in internal demand that should offset the fall in exports. Inflation remains at a moderate level although forecasts for 2012 and 2013 envisage a slight increase. The budgetary deficit deepened in 2012 because of the state’s expansionist policy but should improve in 2012 and 2013. Morocco has to react to the deteriorated economic situation in Europe, its chief economic partner, and come to terms with the impact of the Arab spring, which led to the abolition of the former legislature, the adoption of a new constitution and the swearing-in of a new government.
The country faces major social challenges. These include the persistence of inequalities and very substantial social disparities, as well as a dysfunctional labour market which creates a high level of unemployment and presents a structural problem whose chief victims are women and young urban graduates. The policy of promoting employment is predicated on strong economic growth and proactive public policies to make it easier to get the unemployed into work and encourage entrepreneurial activities.
The problems young people face in getting a first job are mainly related to the mismatch between the level of training and the needs of the labour market, and the attraction that the public service holds for the young at the expense of the private sector. Reform of higher education is under way to give young people a better preparation for the needs of the private sector.