Tunisia Economic Outlook
- Tunisia expects moderate growth in 2012 and 2013 but that will depend on internal and regional stability.
- Recovery will also be conditional on an improvement in transparency and the business climate.
- Separately from emergency measures the structural problem of youth unemployment calls for far-reaching reforms.
The revolution of 14 January 2011 served to expose the structural weaknesses of the Tunisian economy which continues to be characterised by a heavy dependence on traditional sectors of low added value and a sharp polarisation between the offshore and onshore sectors. The fundamentals of the nation’s economy deteriorated overall and the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a slight decline in 2011,chiefly as a result of the political uncertainties which had a negative effect on tourism, mining and foreign direct investment (FDI). The banking system was weakened. The conflict in Libya also had an unfavourable effect on the Tunisian economy. Nevertheless the medium-term economic outlook remains positive.
Since the revolution there has been a speeding up of reforms affecting the governance of the public administration, regional development and press freedom.
The first democratic elections since independence took place on 23 October 2011 and enabled the country to embark upon a new phase of transition. Economic recovery in 2012 will depend on the ability of the government to put in place the policies needed to stimulate the economy, in particular to improve transparency and the private sector climate. Recovery will also be linked to the situation of the economy in Europe, the country’s main trading partner, and the stabilisation of Libya.
With 70% of those out of work aged under 30, unemployment among young people, and in particular those graduating from higher education, was already a major problem before the revolution. Programmes to encourage employment do exist, in particular financial incentives for employers to take on young people and training programmes, to which in 2011 an emergency programme was added. Tunisia has to find the most effective short-term measures and undertake the necessary structural reforms, with special reference to the education system.
