Ghana Economic Outlook
- Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to remain robust in 2012 and 2013.
- Major risks to the fiscal outlook for 2012 lie in forthcoming elections and wage pressures from the implementation of the new pay policy.
- Young people are increasingly forced to rely on economic opportunities created by themselves in the informal sector.
Ghana recorded fast growth in 2011, buoyed by oil revenues and the strong export performance of cocoa and gold. Real GDP growth is projected to remain robust in 2012 and 2013, aided by expansion in oil production and mining activities and the industrial sector. Inflation is projected to remain in single digits in 2012 and 2013. Similarly, the excellent fiscal performance in 2011 is expected to carry through to 2012 as a result of tax reforms instituted during the year. Unless maintained within prudent levels, public spending in election year 2012 could compromise macroeconomic and fiscal consolidation in the years ahead. At the same time, adverse developments in global commodity prices and foreign investment flows are expected to pose challenges to monetary policy.
Gains in economic growth, however, were not translated into adequate job opportunities in the formal sector. An estimated 54% of the labour force remains in informal economic activities with only 11.5% in the formal sector. Of those in formal sector employment, young people account for only 14% of regular wage earners. The young face significant challenges in finding formal sector employment and are increasingly forced to rely on economic opportunities that they create themselves in the informal sector, as self-employed workers, domestic employees, apprentices or unpaid family workers. The 2010 National Youth Policy and the national development strategy are steps in the right direction in terms of co-ordinating youth policy issues as transversal themes in government agencies’ strategies.
