Guinea-Bissau Economic Outlook
- Guinea-Bissau’s economic performance depends essentially on the price of cashew nuts on the world market, which is expected to fall in 2012, and the quick return of political stability.
- Presidential elections following the death of the incumbent president in January 2012, are now uncertain following the military’s coup.
- outh unemployment stands at about 30 %.
How the economy performs in Guinea-Bissau depends essentially on exports of cashew nuts and their price on the world market: and this is expected to fall in 2012 as a result of the Eurozone debt crisis.
The rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth should slow slightly in 2012 and 2013 and the current account deficit worsen. Price increases in imported goods will drive inflation, on the rise in 2011, back below the 3%West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) norm from 2013. THe country was due to have presidental elections in March 2012, following the sudden, natural death of President Malam Bacai Sanah. The second round of the Presidential elections, between current Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Jr. and Kumba Yala was cancelled after the military, unsatified with the ongoing security sector reform, staged a coup on Thursday 12 April. Guinea-Bissau is plagued by continous political instability, undermining its economic development.
Youth unemployment stands at around 30%. But the deterioration of the education system in the aftermath of conflicts and low skill levels are major obstacles on the path to finding paid work. The government is working with the International Labour Organization (ILO) and United Nations Development Programme on drawing up a national jobs policy. A project to support job and income creation was established in June 2011 in a bid to help with the return to civilian working life of demobilised troops.
