Guinea Economic Outlook
- Economic growth should accelerate in 2012 and 2013.
- The satisfactory outcome of the implementation of the referral programme
should make it possible for the country to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). - The mismatch between education and training on the one hand and the needs of the labour market on the other lies behind the high rate of 30% unemployment among the young.
In 2011 the nation’s economy managed to overcome a difficult socio-economic climate to show a recovery in activity. Driven by an improved performance in the agricultural sector, better productivity in the mining sector and a robust performance in the construction sector, there should be continuing sustained growth in 2012 and 2013.
Monetary policy in 2011 saw a rise in the required reserve ratio and the repo rate to limit liquidity and rein in the money supply. But inflation is set to remain at a high level, in double digits, in 2012 and 2013. Guinea is emerging from a long period of political instability and the socio-political situation remains uncertain. Political differences concern the future of the electoral process and financial and logistical problems.
Nevertheless satisfactory results from the implementation of the referral programme should allow Guinea to reach agreement on a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The fall in living standards has been aggravated by the problems of access to basicservices and conflicts in neighbouring countries. Unemployment is essentially an urban phenomenon and affects in particular young people between the ages of 20 and 29.Government efforts to reduce youth unemployment and underemployment have not produced the results hoped for because of the mismatch between the training and education on offer and the needs of the economy, as a result of the absence of reliable support structures and qualified staff.
