Mali Economic Outlook

• The return of political stability will be essential for growth to resume, in addition to favourable agricultural conditions and a rise in gold and cotton prices as well as trade with Côte d’Ivoire.
• The restoration of the electoral process and the state of security in the north of the country are the two main issues facing the country.
• Unemployment affects 15.4% of young people. 

The macroeconomic environment in Mali was hit in 2011 by a sharp fall in agricultural production caused by rains that were uneven and often fell at the wrong time or place.

This drop in food production was compounded by a combination of external shocks, in particular the crisis after the elections in Côte d’Ivoire, the war in Libya and the rise  in the prices of oil, gas and food products. Growth in 2012 and 2013 will essentially depend on the return of political stability and on the assumption that the harvest is good, prices for gold and cotton rise, and trade with Côte d’Ivoire increases. The chief risks threatening forecasts for 2012/13 relate to the organisation of the different national votes that were planned before the coup on 22March 2012 (referendum and presidential and parliamentary elections), the restoration of territorial integrity and developments in the state of security in the north of the country which was the scene of violence in early 2012 as well as proclamation of independence of the Azawad region by Tuareg rebels. The budgetary deficit narrowed in 2011 but will deteriorate in 2012 and 2013 because of costs linked to the elections and management of the crisis in the north.

Youth unemployment is a critical problem in Mali. For the age group 15 to 39 it is put at 15.4% while for the population at large the rate is estimated to be 9.6%. Since 1988 the authorities have been pursuing a national employment policy that regards employment as an essential factor in human development and an effective weapon in the fight against poverty. The national employment policy is operated through several projects and programmes which include the youth employment programme (YEP) and a tenyear programme of professional training for employment (PRODEFPE). In spite of these initiatives the results achieved in the area of job creation have not met expectations.