Niger Economic Outlook

• The mining and oil sectors, combined with public investment, will produce very good economic outcomes in 2012 and 2013.
• The government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached an agreement in December 2011 on a new triennial programme 2012-2014.
• The characteristics of young people are still unsuited to the needs of the labour market.

The overall growth of Niger’s economy slowed in 2011 as a result of bad weather and the repercussions of the crises in Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Libya. But the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should be very high in 2012, thanks in particular  to the good performance of the oil sector. The return to civilian rule after the military transition that followed the coup d’état of 18 February 2010 had an immediate effect on the public finances and led to the return of many technical and financial partners. In December 2011 the government and the IMF reached agreement on a new three-year programme 2012-14. The budget deficit deepened in 2011 but prospects are good in terms of tax receipts given the fiscal revenues expected from the oil sector. The entry into service of the oil refinery at Zinder at the end of 2011 will also help ease the structural deficit in the trade balance as Niger will become a net exporter of petroleum products in 2012.

Worries continue to surround the social situation. There has been progress in improving people’s standard of living but this has not yet been translated into a significant reduction in poverty. Labour demand is fairly low, a sign of the economy’s very limited propensity to create jobs, something that represents a major obstacle for  youth employment. This is one of the results of the weakness of the secondary sector (an average 10% of GDP) which is supposed to absorb most young graduates. In any event, in many cases (40%) they do not meet the requirements of employers, their qualifications most often being unsuited.