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Benin Economic Outlook
Macroeconomic performance and outlook
Economic growth in Benin remains robust (estimated at 6.7% in 2019), thanks in part to an increase in public investment from 21% of GDP in 2016 to 29.6% in 2019. On the supply side, growth is due to the performance of the agricultural sector led by cotton, whose production rose from 269,222 tons in 2016 to 726,831 in 2019; the vitality of the construction industry; and the dynamism of the port of Cotonou. Inflation remained low, estimated at –0.1% in 2019, and below the WAEMU 3% threshold. The CFA franc, pegged to the euro, appreciated against the dollar over 2017–19.
The fiscal deficit, financed through loans and grants, was reduced to 2.5% of GDP in 2019. The current account deficit, which improved thanks to cotton exports, has been financed primarily through official loans (33%), private loans (27%), and foreign direct investment (19%).
Foreign exchange reserves fell to $20.93 million in 2018 (or 0.07 months of imports). The public debt is estimated at 54% of GDP in 2019. In March 2019, the country issued a €500 million eurobond (5.2% of GDP), but the risk of overindebtedness is deemed moderate. Benin is rated B+ by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s. The high levels of poverty (40% of the population) and inequality reflect the noninclusiveness of the country’s growth.
Tailwinds and headwinds
The outlook for the Benin economy is positive, with GDP projected to grow at 6.7% in 2020 and 6.6% in 2021. In agriculture, the implementation of the Strategic Plan for Agricultural Sector Development 2017–25 targets improving agricultural productivity, developing agriculture value chains (cashews, pineapple, cassava, corn, rice, meat, milk), strengthening the resilience of farms, and establishing financing and customized agricultural insurance mechanisms.
Electricity generation capacity increased 67% between 2016 and 2019. Electricity represents approximately 0.8% of GDP, and the country remains highly dependent on Nigeria and Ghana, which provide about 90% of its supply. The Electricity Emergency Plan ($27 million) supports the country’s energy strategy, with the aim of increasing capacity from 354MW in 2019 to 1,400MW by 2035.
Inadequate infrastructure reduces the profitability of economic activity and is an obstacle to growth. The economy is characterized by low productivity and a predominantly informal economy, which reinforces structural imbalances and widens the gap between real and potential growth. The structure of the economy has remained more or less stable since 2000 (the primary sector accounts for 26.4% of GDP, the tertiary sector dominates at 49.2%, and the secondary sector is little developed at 16.4%).
The economy must address a trend decline in total factor productivity in agriculture and industry. Agricultural productivity remains low and the industrial structure is based on agribusiness, manufacturing, construction, and public works. The weak performance of the education, healthcare, and social welfare sectors is notable. In addition, both population growth (2.8%) and underemployment (67.2%) are very high. The country remains highly exposed to changes in the trade and currency policies of Nigeria, Benin’s leading trading partner and the recipient of 51% of its exports.