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2008 AEC - The Economic Impact of Global Warming on Livestock Husbandry in Kenya: A Ricardian Analysis

26-Sep-2008

This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest very modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. This implies that farmers are likely to take adaptation measures to counter the impact of climate change through switching from livestock to crops or by adapting species mix. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that in the long run, livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global farming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the HADCM and PCM models respectively, based on the A2 special report on emissions scenarios. Results point at the need for raising farmers’ awareness of long term climate change and the appropriate adaptation options to counter the likely adverse impact.

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