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AEC 2010 - Is Uganda on Track to Halve Poverty by 2015?
This paper explores differences in the estimates of incidence of poverty in Uganda since the early 1990s as measured by the national poverty line used by Uganda Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank’s “dollar a day” international poverty line. While both measures point to a declining trend in poverty over time there are important differences in the levels of poverty, the speed of the decline and the direction of change in the late 1990s. Proximate causes of this divergence are related to differences in the specification of mean level of welfare and in the distribution of welfare. Proposed underlying causes include differences in: adjustments to account for urban and rural price variation, adjustments to reflect household composition and the application of probability weights associated with the sampling structure.