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Egypt Economic Quarterly Review - Volume 2 - October 2012
Egypt’s real growth domestic product (GDP) at 2006/2007 (July-June) constant market prices picked up to 5.2% during the quarter ending 31 March 2012, bringing real GDP for the fiscal year 2011/12 to 2.2% (Chart 1). This outcome, close to the 2.3% growth achieved during the previous fiscal year, provides evidence of resilience in economic activity. This is crucial given that the real GDP for the first half of 2011/12 fiscal year was only 0.3%.
This stronger performance that is an improvement over the 1.8% growth in 2010/11 is due to favorable base effects falls short of the annual historical average GDP of 6.5% over the period 2005 to 2010. In the short-run, we expect supportive favorable base effects to continue, and political uncertainties to recede, leading to a rebound of economic activity to about 3% (the government predicts 4%) in 2012/2013. In the medium term, however, the country is targeting an annual average growth of 7.5% driven by Egyptian and foreign private investments.