The 2019 Annual Meetings of the African Development Bank Group will be held from 11-14 June 2019, in Malabo, Republic of Equatorial Guinea. Find out more

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Regional Economic Outlook 2019 - East Africa
04/04/2019 18:35
Regional Economic Outlook 2019 - East Africa
Policy Brief - How they did it Vol. 2 Issue 1 - The Journey of Ethiopian Airlines
18/01/2019 18:37
Policy Brief - How they did it Vol. 2 Issue 1 - The Journey of Ethiopian Airlines

Categories: Ethiopia, Transport

Working Paper 303 - Industrial Policy and Late Industrialisation in Ethiopia
27/06/2018 16:31
Working Paper 303 - Industrial Policy and Late Industrialisation in Ethiopia

Categories: Ethiopia

Working Paper 299 - The Structure and Performance of  the Ethiopian Manufacturing Sector
27/06/2018 16:24
Working Paper 299 - The Structure and Performance of the Ethiopian Manufacturing Sector

Categories: Ethiopia

Enhancing Sustainable Development in Ethiopia through Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
04/04/2018 16:26
Enhancing Sustainable Development in Ethiopia through Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Categories: Ethiopia

East Africa Economic Outlook 2018
12/03/2018 13:36
East Africa Economic Outlook 2018
The <em>East Africa Economic Outlook </em>reviews economic performance in 2017 and forecasts the next two years by highlighting the region’s key drivers of growth, opportunities, and challenges. It covers major macroeconomic developments in the region’s 13 countries and discusses structural issues affecting future growth, poverty, and inequality. It also presents in part II a synopsis of manufacturing activity in the region, drawing on a previous study of seven of the region’s countries. The outlook selects manufacturing as the sector to cover due to its potential to drive future growth and employment in the subregion. Economic growth in East Africa was a robust 5.9 percent in 2017 and is forecast to persist in 2018 and 2019. It would have been even higher, had it not been for political instability in the region’s fragile states. The service sector is generally the main driver of East Africa’s growth as agriculture, which has for a longtime played a leading role, is receding. Services grew 12.4 percent in 2017, compared with 12.0 percent for industry and 7.1 percent for agriculture. The mineral and industrial sectors’ role in driving growth is also increasing. On the demand side, household consumption is the main driver of growth, followed by public investment in infrastructure, mineral exploration, and construction.Read more
Working Paper 288 - Return to Investment in Agricultural Cooperatives in Ethiopia
04/10/2017 17:20
Working Paper 288 - Return to Investment in Agricultural Cooperatives in Ethiopia
Working Paper 268 - Measuring Resilience to Climate Change in Ethiopia
19/06/2017 16:45
Working Paper 268 - Measuring Resilience to Climate Change in Ethiopia

Categories: Ethiopia

Working Paper 240 - The Impact of the Real Exchange Rate Changes on Export Performance in Tanzania and Ethiopia
30/08/2016 11:11
Working Paper 240 - The Impact of the Real Exchange Rate Changes on Export Performance in Tanzania and Ethiopia

Categories: Ethiopia, Tanzania

Working Paper 237 - Decomposing Sources of Productivity Change in Small-Scale Farming in Ethiopia
06/06/2016 09:58
Working Paper 237 - Decomposing Sources of Productivity Change in Small-Scale Farming in Ethiopia

Categories: Ethiopia

East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2014
24/04/2015 14:21
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2014
AfDB Partner of Choice for East Africa - EARC Report 2014
08/10/2014 12:27
AfDB Partner of Choice for East Africa - EARC Report 2014
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - Second Quarter 2014
02/10/2014 12:01
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - Second Quarter 2014
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - First Quarter 2014
09/06/2014 13:38
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - First Quarter 2014
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2013
02/04/2014 10:09
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2013
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - Third Quarter 2013
22/11/2013 10:18
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - Third Quarter 2013
Working Paper 182 - Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare in Ethiopia: Evidence from Micro Data
23/09/2013 09:56
Working Paper 182 - Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare in Ethiopia: Evidence from Micro Data
The Ethiopian economy has witnessed double-digit rate of inflation since 2003, surging to a peak of 53% in June 2008. The significant rise in the relative prices of grain and other foodstuff such as sugar, edible oil and other necessities were particularly worrisome. Large changes in both absolute and relative prices in such a short period of time can undermine the rebound in per capita incomes in the last decade and the poverty reduction effort of the government. Cognizant of the gravity of problem, policymakers have mounted efforts to cushion vulnerable households from experiencing the full brunt of price surges. The scope for such interventions will be once the welfare effects of rising prices are understood. Moreover, better measures of key parameters driving the demand for grain and other goods supplements an analysis into the causes of relative price changes in Ethiopia. &nbsp; This paper seeks to bridge the knowledge gap surrounding the link between welfare and rising prices. First, the study examines the distributional consequence of the rise in absolute price over the recent periods in rural as well as urban areas. It provides quantitative estimates of the change in the measure of income inequality due to price changes. Such findings will indicate whether or not the poor have been affected disproportionately more than others during inflationary periods. Second, it provides evidence on the welfare implications of changes in relative prices of key consumption goods by constructing concentration curves using non-parametric methods. The pair-wise comparison of concentration curves is used to analyze whether subsidies on wheat or other grain products could raise welfare, particularly, if it is financed through surtax imposed on other commodities, or income. Third, it estimates the effect of changes in the relative prices of agricultural goods on consumption growth for rural as well as urban households to capture welfare effects of the price shocks. Finally, a range of income and cross-price elasticity of demand values are reported to understand better the role of demand shifts in driving relative price changes. The results show that the recent dramatic rise in the general price level may be responsible for a 2% annual rise in the average GINI coefficient in urban areas. Therefore, between 2000 and 2006, the GINI coefficient rose by about 6 percentage points due to inflation alone suggesting the anti-poor bias of the inflationary process in urban areas. Secondly, consumption pattern for cereals and other food items suggest that subsidies targeted at maize in rural areas, and teff in urban areas financed say through a proportional income tax (surtax) could be welfare enhancing, particularly for the poor population. The study shows that, while real consumption growth deteriorated significantly following the rise in the real price of food (cereals) in urban areas, its effect on rural households depended on the potential to be a net-seller or a net-buyer. As a result, land rich households tended to benefit significantly from real and nominal price movements of cereals while land poor households lose enormously. Thus, policy reforms designed to raise agricultural terms of trade in favour of the rural sector need to address the potential for general price hikes to aggravate poverty by impoverishing the land-poor and consequently raising income inequality as well as pushing the average farm household into poverty. The study estimates that the overall effect of the recent hike in relative prices has increased the true cost of living by 12% in urban areas, suggesting the severity of the welfare loss associated with inflation. In addition, if unchecked, inflation in urban Ethiopia could worsen income inequality significantly. It is estimated that between 2000 and 2006, the Gini coefficient might have increased by 6.1% due to changes in relative prices that were adverse to the urban poor. This result coupled with the recent trend of rising inequality in urban areas suggests that gains in average per-capita growth can be eroded easily leading to growing impoverishment of households in urban areas. The impact of a rise in the real prices of cereals on the welfare of rural households is more complex. To partially address this issue, the study specified a dynamic model of consumption growth, which is a function of changes in household endowments and price shocks. The model was estimated for three distinct groups which potentially could address the net-purchasing position of a household. These groups are: land-rich, land-poor and a typical farm household. The result show that real growth in consumption is positive for land-rich households, negative for a typical farm household, and deteriorates significantly for land-poor households. These outcomes imply negative consequence for the pace of poverty reduction in rural areas.Read more
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - Second Quarter 2013
28/08/2013 12:44
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - Second Quarter 2013
Ethiopia - 2013 - Country Profile - Partnering for Inclusive Growth
25/06/2013 09:48
Ethiopia - 2013 - Country Profile - Partnering for Inclusive Growth
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - First Quarter 2013
06/06/2013 13:17
East Africa Quarterly Bulletin - First Quarter 2013
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