Publications

Search filters
Working Paper 276 - A Tax on Children? Food Price Inflation and Health
01/08/2017 09:18
Working Paper 276 - A Tax on Children? Food Price Inflation and Health
Working Paper 255 - Competition and industrial policies relating to food production in southern Africa
17/05/2017 14:12
Working Paper 255 - Competition and industrial policies relating to food production in southern Africa

Categories: Food Production

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Report 2015
28/09/2015 12:26
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Report 2015
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Report 2014
01/11/2014 15:31
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Report 2014
July 2014 - Implementation Update- Action Plan to Improve Statistics for Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development in Africa
08/08/2014 16:53
July 2014 - Implementation Update- Action Plan to Improve Statistics for Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development in Africa
Africa Food Security Brief - Special focus on climate Africa Food Security change Impacts - Issue 5
14/05/2014 10:27
Africa Food Security Brief - Special focus on climate Africa Food Security change Impacts - Issue 5
Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures
09/05/2014 09:12
Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures
African economies have sustained unprecedented rates of growth, driven mainly by strong domestic demand, improved macroeconomic management, a growing middle class, and increased political stability. As the continent continues to evolve, the African Development Bank’s <a href="t3://page?uid=6814"><strong>Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures</strong></a> publication looks at the key megatrends of the last few decades that will shape Africa’s future. <h3>Human Development</h3> <a href="t3://file?uid=47718"><img align="left" height="100" src="uploads/RTEmagicC_1-Human-Development-tracking.png" alt="" /></a>Over the last 20 years the continent’s population has grown rapidly and in 2011 exceeded the 1 billion mark. Of all global regions, Africa will lead population growth over the next 50 years. Linked to this megatrend of rapid population growth is that of urbanization. The people of Africa will increasingly be city dwellers. Since 1960, the urban share of Africa’s population has doubled from 19 to 39 percent, equivalent to an increase of more than 416 million people in 2011. This means that Africa will have some of the largest mega-cities in the world. With a large population, Africa can harness and build on the expanded workforce to spur economic growth. However, this is conditional on Africa improving access to and equity within health systems, articulating right education policies, and creating employment opportunities. <h3>Economic Performance, Inclusiveness, and Structural Transformation</h3> <a href="t3://file?uid=47715"><img align="left" height="100" src="uploads/RTEmagicC_2--Economic-structural-transformation-tracking.png" alt="" /></a>Africa is on the rise. On aggregate, the region’s GDP growth is expected to average more than 5 percent over 2013–2015. Average inflation in Africa stood at 8.9 percent in 2012 and has since edged down to 6.7 percent in 2013, having been largely contained in most African countries. Macroeconomic stability, trade and exchange rate liberalization, and new policies and incentives supportive of the private sector have helped drive private sector development. Supported by the strong economic growth, the proportion of people living in poverty has fallen from over 50 percent in 1981 to less than 45 percent in 2012. This is coupled with the continent’s emerging middle class, grown to some 350 million people and projected to reach 1.1 billion by 2060. Africa’s growth, however, has not been even across all countries. Six of the ten most unequal countries in the world are in Africa, and there is not yet any evidence of progress in reducing income inequality. With the endowment of a young growing workforce on the one hand and natural resources on the other, Africa has an important opportunity for inclusive growth. The challenge is to seize it through wellexecuted investment in infrastructure, increased access to education and relevant training, the development of capable institutions, and support for private investment and job creation. Structural economic change is indispensable to achieve the desired progress of Africa and to bring prosperity to the continent’s populations. In order to alleviate poverty and reduce income inequalities, Africa will need to embrace structural transformation while maintaining robust economic growth. Fostering diversification through transition to high-productive sectors will be a catalyst for industrial upgrading and technological innovation which in turn will increase job creation. The path toward obtaining the status of middle-income and high-income countries will necessitate diversifying African economies away from dominant sectors such as agriculture and commodities. <h3>Governance, Fragility, and Security</h3> <a href="t3://file?uid=47717"><img align="left" height="100" src="uploads/RTEmagicC_3-Governance-Fragility-tracking.png" alt="" /></a>Africa’s rapid economic growth is transforming the lives and livelihoods of Africans at an unprecedented<br />pace. Such growth is underpinned by improvements in governance: over the period of 2000-2012, around 89 percent of African countries have improved their capacity to deliver economic opportunity and human development; 67 percent of countries made progress in fostering political participation, gender equality, and human rights; and 40 percent of countries strengthened their safety and rule of law. Tackling corruption remains an essential part of Africa’s development agenda. Africa is growing, creating both opportunities and risks. Change is intrinsic to the development process; if managed effectively, they can help unlock Africa’s development potential. Yet change can also be disruptive: urbanization and slum development, the youth bulge, inequality and social exclusion, climate pressures, environmental damage, new resource rents and resource scarcity, and weak governance all have the potential to place African societies under considerable strain. Fragility comes about where these pressures become too great for countries to manage within the political and institutional process, creating a risk that conflict spills over into violence. Despite tough challenges posed by fragility, progress is possible. While various fragile states have lost ground in terms of economic growth during earlier periods of conflict—such as the case of Liberia where GDP dropped by as much as 90 percent in 20 years—many of them, with peace and stability, are now on the path of growth and recovery. More effective and better coordinated efforts, tailored to each individual situation, must be made to assist countries affected by fragility and conflict, and countries in transition in managing political, security, economic, and environmental stresses that make them and their citizens vulnerable. <h3>Regional Integration, Trade, and Investment</h3> <a href="t3://file?uid=47721"><img align="left" height="100" src="uploads/RTEmagicC_4-Regional-integration-tracking.png" alt="" /></a>In recent years, Africa has emerged as a frontier market, having increasingly attracted the attention of investors. In 2012, Africa’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow grew to USD 50 billion while exports amounted to USD 641 billion. At the same time, intra-African trade remains low. Integration remains essential for Africa to realize its full growth potential, to participate in the global economy, and to share the benefits of an increasingly&nbsp; connected global marketplace. With plans to establish regional- and continental-wide free trade areas well underway, political commitment will be required to translate the trade agendas into sound policy and regulatory reforms to maximize the benefits. <h3>Infrastructure Development</h3> <a href="t3://file?uid=47719"><img align="left" height="100" src="uploads/RTEmagicC_5-Infrastructure-Tracking.png" alt="" /></a>As Africa continues to urbanize, the importance of public investment in infrastructure becomes increasingly evident. Basic amenities such as housing, drinking water, and sanitation facilities are needed to provide Africa’s growing population with a better standard of living. Investments in energy and transport will also help increase access to affordable and reliable electricity, improve transport connectivity, and reduce transport cost and time. At the same time, Africa’s rising consumer class has resulted in a surge in mobile-cellular subscriptions and internet usage. As it stands, broadband coverage is at 16 percent and will likely reach 99 percent by 2060. <h3>Agriculture, Food Security, and a Greener Environment</h3> <a href="t3://file?uid=47714"><img align="left" height="100" src="uploads/RTEmagicC_6-Agriculture-tracking.png" alt="" /></a>Agricultural production has increased, but mainly by bringing more land under cultivation rather than by<br />improvements in yields. Feeding the expanding urban population will present a challenge that will entail<br />adoption of the latest technologies and high-yielding crop varieties as a way of raising productivity. Strengthening agriculture and food security through an integrated value chain approach can improve the livelihoods of Africans who live in rural areas. Many are reliant on subsistence farming, and a sizable proportion is chronically vulnerable to climatic uncertainty. Africa lives off its land, and more than 227 million Africans work on the land, which too often fails to provide for their needs. By continuing to invest in rural infrastructure (such as rural roads, irrigation, electricity, storage facilities, access to markets, conservation systems, and supply networks), countries can increase their agricultural productivity and competitiveness.Read more
Comparing the Real Size of Africa Economies – Highlights of the Main Findings of the 2011 Round of the International Comparison Program in Africa
05/05/2014 10:27
Comparing the Real Size of Africa Economies – Highlights of the Main Findings of the 2011 Round of the International Comparison Program in Africa
The new report Comparing the Real Size of African Economies: Highlights of the Main Findings of the 2011 Round of the International Comparison Program in Africa is based on the price survey data and national accounts collected from 50 of the African Development Bank’s regional member countries (RMCs). The International Comparison Program (ICP) is a global statistical initiative established in 1970 to produce internationally comparable price and expenditure data as well as purchasing power parity (PPP) estimates to facilitate cross-country comparisons of price levels, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and related economic aggregates in real terms and free of price and exchange rate distortions. The genesis of the ICP was an early recognition that measures of economic aggregates based on exchange rates do not reflect real differences in price levels between countries, and are thus patently unsuitable for policy decisions which in principle relate to volumes free of price distortions. By establishing purchasing power equivalence, where one unit of currency purchases the same quantity of goods and services in all countries, PPP data allow cross-country comparisons of economic aggregates and structures on the basis of volumes, free of price and exchange rate distortions. The program is globally managed by the World Bank and implemented by regions, namely, Africa, Asia and Pacific Islands, South America, the Community of Independent States (CIS) and Russia, Western Asia and Europe. The regional programs are managed by various institutions and lead countries. The European Economic Union Statistics Office (Eurostat) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) manage the comparison for their member countries. In South America, the work is managed by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UN-ECLAC); in Asia, by the Asian Development Bank; in Western Asia, by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA) and in the CIS countries by Russia. AfDB has been managing the Africa program since 2002, the first time an African institution assumed such responsibility since the inception of ICP. The previous ICP rounds for Africa were managed by Eurostat.&nbsp; The ICP 2011 results answer a number of key questions relating to the Africa region: Which are the largest and smallest economies? Which are the poorer and richer ones compared to the regional average? How do price levels vary across the region? And which countries appear to enjoy the highest welfare levels, etc.<br /><br />Read more
April 2014 - Implementation Update- Action Plan to Improve Statistics for Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development in Africa
10/04/2014 15:44
April 2014 - Implementation Update- Action Plan to Improve Statistics for Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development in Africa
September 2013 - Implementation Update: Action Plan to Improve Statistics for Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development in Africa
24/09/2013 07:58
September 2013 - Implementation Update: Action Plan to Improve Statistics for Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development in Africa
Working Paper 182 - Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare in Ethiopia: Evidence from Micro Data
23/09/2013 09:56
Working Paper 182 - Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare in Ethiopia: Evidence from Micro Data
The Ethiopian economy has witnessed double-digit rate of inflation since 2003, surging to a peak of 53% in June 2008. The significant rise in the relative prices of grain and other foodstuff such as sugar, edible oil and other necessities were particularly worrisome. Large changes in both absolute and relative prices in such a short period of time can undermine the rebound in per capita incomes in the last decade and the poverty reduction effort of the government. Cognizant of the gravity of problem, policymakers have mounted efforts to cushion vulnerable households from experiencing the full brunt of price surges. The scope for such interventions will be once the welfare effects of rising prices are understood. Moreover, better measures of key parameters driving the demand for grain and other goods supplements an analysis into the causes of relative price changes in Ethiopia. &nbsp; This paper seeks to bridge the knowledge gap surrounding the link between welfare and rising prices. First, the study examines the distributional consequence of the rise in absolute price over the recent periods in rural as well as urban areas. It provides quantitative estimates of the change in the measure of income inequality due to price changes. Such findings will indicate whether or not the poor have been affected disproportionately more than others during inflationary periods. Second, it provides evidence on the welfare implications of changes in relative prices of key consumption goods by constructing concentration curves using non-parametric methods. The pair-wise comparison of concentration curves is used to analyze whether subsidies on wheat or other grain products could raise welfare, particularly, if it is financed through surtax imposed on other commodities, or income. Third, it estimates the effect of changes in the relative prices of agricultural goods on consumption growth for rural as well as urban households to capture welfare effects of the price shocks. Finally, a range of income and cross-price elasticity of demand values are reported to understand better the role of demand shifts in driving relative price changes. The results show that the recent dramatic rise in the general price level may be responsible for a 2% annual rise in the average GINI coefficient in urban areas. Therefore, between 2000 and 2006, the GINI coefficient rose by about 6 percentage points due to inflation alone suggesting the anti-poor bias of the inflationary process in urban areas. Secondly, consumption pattern for cereals and other food items suggest that subsidies targeted at maize in rural areas, and teff in urban areas financed say through a proportional income tax (surtax) could be welfare enhancing, particularly for the poor population. The study shows that, while real consumption growth deteriorated significantly following the rise in the real price of food (cereals) in urban areas, its effect on rural households depended on the potential to be a net-seller or a net-buyer. As a result, land rich households tended to benefit significantly from real and nominal price movements of cereals while land poor households lose enormously. Thus, policy reforms designed to raise agricultural terms of trade in favour of the rural sector need to address the potential for general price hikes to aggravate poverty by impoverishing the land-poor and consequently raising income inequality as well as pushing the average farm household into poverty. The study estimates that the overall effect of the recent hike in relative prices has increased the true cost of living by 12% in urban areas, suggesting the severity of the welfare loss associated with inflation. In addition, if unchecked, inflation in urban Ethiopia could worsen income inequality significantly. It is estimated that between 2000 and 2006, the Gini coefficient might have increased by 6.1% due to changes in relative prices that were adverse to the urban poor. This result coupled with the recent trend of rising inequality in urban areas suggests that gains in average per-capita growth can be eroded easily leading to growing impoverishment of households in urban areas. The impact of a rise in the real prices of cereals on the welfare of rural households is more complex. To partially address this issue, the study specified a dynamic model of consumption growth, which is a function of changes in household endowments and price shocks. The model was estimated for three distinct groups which potentially could address the net-purchasing position of a household. These groups are: land-rich, land-poor and a typical farm household. The result show that real growth in consumption is positive for land-rich households, negative for a typical farm household, and deteriorates significantly for land-poor households. These outcomes imply negative consequence for the pace of poverty reduction in rural areas.Read more
Africa Food Security Brief - Issue 4
16/09/2013 11:05
Africa Food Security Brief - Issue 4

Categories: Food Production

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Report 2013 - Full Report
25/06/2013 10:28
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Report 2013 - Full Report
Working Paper 163 - Food Prices and Inflation in Tanzania
26/12/2012 18:53
Working Paper 163 - Food Prices and Inflation in Tanzania
This paper presents an econometric model of headline Tanzanian inflation and its principal components for the period since 2000.&nbsp; Inflation is modeled in terms of deviations from a set of ‘anchors’ reflecting long-run demand-side and monetary determinants, on the one hand, and supply-side and open economy factors on the other.&nbsp; Five main conclusions derive from our analysis. In the last five years Tanzania, along with the other major economies of East Africa, has experienced a period of high and volatile inflation.&nbsp; In mid-2008, year-on-year headline inflation edged above 10 percent per annum for the first time since the early 1990s, and while it dropped back to low single digits in 2009 it rose again sharply towards the end of 2010, reaching close to 20 percent per annum in the final quarter of 2011. Much of this rise in inflation and inflation volatility reflects developments in the global economy, most obviously the sharp rises in global food and fuels prices in 2008 and again in 2011. With food accounting for 51% of the consumption basket in Tanzania and energy and transport costs accounting for a further 9 percent each, these global developments may be expected to have a powerful impact on overall inflation, both directly and, in the case of energy prices, indirectly through the high share of transport and distribution costs in retail prices. First, money growth and hence the stance of monetary policy matters for inflation both in the long run and in the short run.&nbsp; The transmission from the monetary stance, through aggregate demand, to headline inflation is principally through core inflation but not exclusively so; monetary or demand-side effects also feed food and fuel price inflation, particularly in the short run.&nbsp; Second, however, the principal component of overall inflation -- food price inflation -- is predominantly driven by supply-side factors including both domestic agricultural output shocks and by the pass-through from world prices for food and fuel.&nbsp; The inflation transmission from world food prices is, however, relatively weak and attenuated, and is much stronger when world prices rise than when they fall.&nbsp; This is consistent with an environment in which retailers and distributions enjoy significant market power and are able to pass on price rises to consumers but to cushion their own margins when world prices fall. Third, the effect of domestic supply conditions on food price inflation points to the asymmetric effects of trade policy in Tanzania; while food imports appear to respond reasonably rapidly to domestic production short-falls, the capacity to export surplus food production is much more muted so that market adjustment in this case occurs through falling prices, other things equal.&nbsp; This result has important implications for trade policy and production incentives in agriculture although, as noted below, a much closer analysis of cross-border prices is required before firm policy conclusions can be drawn. Fourth, headline inflation exhibits strong seasonality, consistent with weak price-stabilizing effects of trade and incomplete storage.&nbsp; Non-food inflation is, by contrast, broadly non-seasonal.&nbsp; Finally, prices in Tanzania in general are flexible, more so for the food and energy sub-components but even in the traditionally sticky-price domain of core inflation there is little evidence of inflation persistence overall.&nbsp; Some channels of price adjustment are take time – notably the effects of monetary disequilibrium -- but in general inflationary shocks dissipate rapidly with half-live being little more than one month. The analysis points to three priority areas for further research.&nbsp; First, a better understanding of the supply-side (cost-push) determinants of core inflation is required.&nbsp; Second, and related, the role of movements in the nominal exchange rate remains poorly understood.&nbsp; Once the effects operating through the pass-through from world food and fuel prices – and the role it plays in determining the equilibrium demand for money – there appears to be only a surprisingly weak independent short-run role for the nominal exchange on any of the principal components of inflation.&nbsp; Finally, the concept of ‘world food prices’ used throughout this analysis needs to be revisited to reflect the impact of cross-border food prices, particularly in Kenya to the North and Zambia and Malawi in the South West of the country. At present, our models include measures of the deviation of domestic food and fuel prices from world price indices derived from the World Bank global commodities database.Read more
Economic Brief - The Political Economy of Food Security in North Africa
19/11/2012 14:18
Economic Brief - The Political Economy of Food Security in North Africa
Africa Food Security Brief - Highlights of the Food Security Situation - Issue 3
23/08/2012 15:06
Africa Food Security Brief - Highlights of the Food Security Situation - Issue 3

Categories: Food Production

A Comparison of Real Household Consumption Expenditures and Price Levels in Africa 2012
11/05/2012 15:55
A Comparison of Real Household Consumption Expenditures and Price Levels in Africa 2012
Jannuary 2012 - Implementation Update - Action Plan to Improve Statistics for Food Security- Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development in Africa
18/01/2012 00:00
Jannuary 2012 - Implementation Update - Action Plan to Improve Statistics for Food Security- Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development in Africa
Improving Statistics for Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development - An Action Plan for Africa (2011-2015) - Bulletin N°. 3
13/01/2012 09:49
Improving Statistics for Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development - An Action Plan for Africa (2011-2015) - Bulletin N°. 3
Africa Food Security Brief - Recent Trends in Global Food Prices - Issue 2
28/11/2011 09:19
Africa Food Security Brief - Recent Trends in Global Food Prices - Issue 2

Categories: Food Production

You are currently offline. Some pages or content may fail to load.