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West Africa Economic Outlook 2018
12/03/2018 14:00
West Africa Economic Outlook 2018
The West Africa Economic Outlook presents a comprehensive economic analysis of the 16countries in this region, focusing on growth, macroeconomic stability and employment, structural change, and poverty reduction. It provides estimates for 2017 and projections for 2018 and 2019. A second part of the outlook examines the labor market in more detail. Average GDP growth in West Africa stalled in 2016, after several strong years, to 0.5 percent. It rebounded in 2017 to 2.5 percent, and was projected to rise to 3.8 percent in 2018 and 3.9 percent in 2019. Countries’ performance varied, but because Nigeria contributes about 70 percent of regional GDP, its patterns largely shape regional ones. The service sector’s share in the economy is the largest in most countries, and manufacturing’s share is the smallest in all of them. Demand in the economies comes primarily—70 percent on average—from private consumption, but gross capital formation is expected to be the fastest growing area of demand in the next couple of years. To reduce vulnerability to external shocks threatened by the dependence of several economies, especially Nigeria, on oil or other mineral extraction, West Africa must increase domestic input into its products through manufacturing, especially processing minerals and agricultural products.Read more
Working Paper 284 - Growth and Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism in Nigeria
04/10/2017 17:16
Working Paper 284 - Growth and Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism in Nigeria

Categories: Nigeria

THE NIGERIA TECHNICAL COOPERATION FUND (NTCF) -  Integrating Africa, supporting growth  (Brochure)
03/08/2017 10:47
THE NIGERIA TECHNICAL COOPERATION FUND (NTCF) - Integrating Africa, supporting growth (Brochure)

Categories: Nigeria

Africa Economic Brief - The Challenge of Job Creation in Nigeria
12/01/2016 16:40
Africa Economic Brief - The Challenge of Job Creation in Nigeria

Categories: Nigeria, Employment

West Africa Policy Notes - Note 3, Septembre 2015
22/12/2015 12:18
West Africa Policy Notes - Note 3, Septembre 2015
West Africa Monitor Quarterly – Issue 7
10/08/2015 10:15
West Africa Monitor Quarterly – Issue 7
West Africa Monitor Quarterly – Issue 6
30/04/2015 15:35
West Africa Monitor Quarterly – Issue 6
Economic Brief - Global Value Chain Development and Structural Transformation in Nigeria
07/04/2015 10:53
Economic Brief - Global Value Chain Development and Structural Transformation in Nigeria

Categories: Nigeria

West Africa Monitor Quarterly - Issue 4
21/11/2014 17:11
West Africa Monitor Quarterly - Issue 4
West Africa Monitor Quarterly - Issue 3
21/08/2014 13:22
West Africa Monitor Quarterly - Issue 3
West Africa Policy Note - Note 01, July 2014
11/07/2014 09:40
West Africa Policy Note - Note 01, July 2014
West Africa Monitor Quarterly - Issue 2
14/05/2014 13:23
West Africa Monitor Quarterly - Issue 2
Nigeria - 2013 - Country Profile - Leveraging Partnerships for Economic Transformation and Inclusive Growth
14/05/2014 11:26
Nigeria - 2013 - Country Profile - Leveraging Partnerships for Economic Transformation and Inclusive Growth
West Africa Monitor Quarterly - Issue 1
10/10/2013 15:27
West Africa Monitor Quarterly - Issue 1
The West Africa Monitor aims at monitoring key socio‐economic developments in the region and provides brief analysis on latest events across the countries. This issue includes (i) a Regional Overview highlighting major trends; (i) a set of country notes each of them featuring a special theme of key relevance for the country at the time of writing; and (iii) a dedicated section on financial sector in West Africa.Read more
Working Paper 180 - Marital Status, Household Size and Poverty in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2009-2010 Survey Data
23/09/2013 09:56
Working Paper 180 - Marital Status, Household Size and Poverty in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2009-2010 Survey Data
Recent studies on a sample of sub-Saharan Africa have shown that only half of widows or their children received property after the death of their husbands. The rates were high in Rwanda66% in Rwanda (60 percent), Namibia (57 percent), and Tanzania (53 percent). Indeed, only women in polygamous marriages were less likely to report inheriting property. These studies support the view that property inheritance by widows is significantly and robustly associated with higher welfare outcomes (per capita consumption and value of household stocks) in most regions. This paper examines the effect of marital status and household size, among other correlates, on poverty in Nigeria a view to addressing the related question of whether and how poverty can be sustainably reduced, using the Harmonized Nigeria Living Standard Survey (HNLSS) data of 2009/2010. The study applies multivariate analysis, using a logistic regression in accordance with the basic principles of discrete choice models on the 2009/2010 data. In order to explore the correlates of poverty with the variables thought to be important in explaining poverty a logistic regression relating poverty status (the dichotomous variable) to marital status; demographic characteristic (household size), personal characteristic (age and its square); gender; educational attainment; occupation/employment; and geographical residence. Our results show that monogamous marriage, divorce/separation and widowhood are negatively and significantly correlated with the probability of being poor. However, monogamous marriage has the largest probability of reducing poverty in Nigeria. We also find that household size matters in determining poverty in the country: a one-person household negatively and significantly reduces poverty while addition of members to the household, progressively increases the probability of being poor. In addition, our results show that there is a significant concave (inverted-U shaped) relationship between age and poverty. Other variables found to significantly reduce the probability of being poor include: being a male, completion of post-secondary education, being in paid household employment, and residence in the North Central and South East geopolitical zones. Variables that increase the probability of being poor in Nigeria include rural residence, possessing no education, being a self-employed farmer, and residence in the North West geopolitical zone of the country. Based on the results, we recommend a number of policy interventions necessary to reduce poverty in Nigeria. The study provides a set of policy interventions necessary to reduce poverty in Nigeria. First, while government cannot legislate marriage structure given the heterogenous nature of the country and the need to promote freedom of choice, public and private sector policies can be used to increase the number and proportion of high quality monogamous marriage rates among Nigerians.   Second, given that property inheritance helps widows and divorced women to reduce poverty, the government, at the national level, should embark on policy reforms to guarantee women’s rights to equal inheritance under the law, and to increase women’s legal literacy so that they are able to claim what is rightfully theirs. Such policies should also support women’s ownership claims to property in the event of divorce. Third, given that poverty increases with the number of household members (or family size), there is urgent need to intensify family planning services efforts and activities in Nigeria so as to improve knowledge, acceptance and practice (KAP) of family planning. This will involve not only increased financial outlay but also research on fertility determinants as well as decentralized planning, delivery and supervision of family planning services. Fourth, there is a need to focus on gender-based poverty interventions, especially among female-headed households in Nigeria. Improving access to education, for example, can reduce gendered disadvantages both by increasing individual productivity and by facilitating the movement of poor people from low-paying jobs in agriculture to higher-paying jobs in industry and services. Making agriculture attractive with modern inputs and easy access to credit, which will help to increase productivity in the sector, will also be helpful.Read more
Working Paper 162 -  Planning to Fail or Failing to Plan: Institutional Response to Nigeria’s Development Question
10/12/2012 09:00
Working Paper 162 - Planning to Fail or Failing to Plan: Institutional Response to Nigeria’s Development Question
Planning simply involves the process and actions taken to drive economic outcomes to expected levels. It involves the State, which is responsible for sharpening institutions to attain the expected economic outcome. The bane of the planning regime of many African countries is the inability of the state to put in place appropriate institutional framework to ensure the attainment of economic plans. Nigeria has witnessed some planning regimes ranging from the 5-year development planning models to the post democratic plans inclusive of vision 20:2020. However, adequate institutions to ensure the attainment of such plans are lacking. This is based on the fact that institutions are expected to be dynamic and should be shaped to ensure a given objective is met. This has not been the case of Nigeria and hence, bogus planning with poor economic outcomes has been the resultant effect. Based on this, the paper compares the planning regime of Botswana and South Korea with Nigeria in order to make inference for the Nigerian situation and recommend policies for actions. Botswana and South Korea was selected because they both have similar planning regime with Nigeria but they have achieved more economic outcome as a result of the strength of their institutions. The paper emphasized this using the scores for measures of institutions across the three countries. Institutions are frameworks, policies/guidelines and regulations designed to ‘make things work’. It includes mechanisms created to shape relationships among economic agents. Using Nigeria as a case in point and comparing the positional values of institutions using some indicators with those of Botswana and South Korea that have been reputed as having strong institutions, Table 1 reveals that Nigeria has performed far lower with negative values all through the period. The role of institution in ensuring the attainment of planned objectives include efficient management of resources, accountability to enhance checks, reduction in corrupt practices, independent judicial system to enforce the set policies. With these in place, the government is able to de-emphasize on ‘elite capture’ and focus on national loyalty and better service delivery. Botswana and South Korea have experienced sustainable planning paradigms that have yielded some commendable economic outcomes. This is with no prejudice of possible ‘black spots’. However, their governments have shown commitment to tenets of plans, which include:  consultations before making national plans. They have also shown sound institutional development that will foster the attainment of their plans. Some of their plans are corroborated with fiscal discipline and sound financial controls. For instance, the government of Botswana at some point ensured that their spending was not initiated by the increase in revenue. South Korean government ensures that short-term plans are interconnected with perspective plans targeted at related objectives. Going forward, efficient planning should be corroborated with strong institutions and coverage. Institutions in this wise are those reforms and policy revealing the commitment of political leaders to a course. Institutions should be married with proper consultation. We imply that planning in isolation will not result to efficient economic outcome despite institutions been in place. This is because comprehensive planning takes into consideration the subject of the plan and that includes economic agents. It is imperative that strengthening of the institutions to meet the planned objectives, corroborated with proper consultation will deliver expected economic outcomes. Institutions are not static but should be progressive to meet up with current challenges, arising from the voices of the people. This is fundamental as a guide for ‘plan implementers’ and guard against abuses. Therefore, institutions guided by government commitment and views of the people, should ‘police the policy document’ of emanating from the planning process’. Thus, it is not that the carrot is insufficient but the sticks are rather too short or weak to keep the carrot from the mule.Read more
Working Paper 149 - Accounting for Poverty in Africa: Illustration with Survey Data from Nigeria
14/05/2012 14:28
Working Paper 149 - Accounting for Poverty in Africa: Illustration with Survey Data from Nigeria
Apart from presenting the poverty profile, this paper examines the correlates of poverty with multivariate models that predict the probability of being poor using data from the Nigerian National Consumer Survey (NCS) of 2003/2004. The probability of a household being poor was examined for the nation as a whole, as well as for male-headed and female-headed households and for urban/rural geographical areas. The analysis is useful, first, to verify the relative role of the various factors in determining poverty status, and second, to recommend policy changes to reduce poverty incidence in the country. The probability of a household being poor was examined for the nation as a whole, as well as male-headed and female-headed households and for urban/rural geographical areas. It is argued that poverty increases at old age as the productivity of the individual decreases and the individual has few savings to compensate for this loss of productivity and income. It is also posited that women are more prone to poverty due principally to low education and lack of opportunity to own assets such as land. The literature shows evidence that large households are associated with poverty while showing that education lowers poverty. Location of residence also matters. In particular, due to more job opportunities in urban areas, poverty tends to be lower in urban than rural areas. It has been posited that a long-term marital relationship may mean higher permanent income and a larger build-up of consumer durables, reducing poverty while religion affects poverty since it embodies a great deal about a person's general approach and outlook to the world. To what extent these are relevant in Nigeria is an empirical question investigated in this paper. We present important stylized facts on trend oil wealth and democratic development in African counties. Africa’s oil reserves have maintained an upward trend, rising from 53.4 trillion barrels in 1980 to over 130 trillion barrels in 2012. Also, while most African countries legalized opposition parties and held competitive, multiparty elections, which, though, have often not met the minimal democratic criteria of freeness and fairness: they have therefore been "pseudo-democracies" or “virtual democracies”, with North Africa being mired in the trap of liberalized autocracy. We apply a multivariate analysis, using a logistic regression in accordance with the basic principles of discrete choice models on the 2004 data in order to explore the correlates of poverty in the country. The dependent variable is a dichotomous variable of whether the Nigerian household is poor (1) or not poor (0). Our results show that, in particular, the variables that are positively and significantly correlated with the probability of being poor nationally are: household size, lack of education, residence in the North Central zone, being single, and being a Moslem. The variables that are negatively and significantly correlated with the probability of being poor are: age of the household head, quadratic of household size, residence in an urban area, post-secondary (tertiary) education attainment, being a Christian, and residence in the south south, southeast, south west, and north east zones of the country. We recommend a number of policy interventions necessary to reduce poverty in Nigeria and similar African countries. These include: the continued intensification of the “solidarity” (a form of “social security”) with the Nigerian family system; intensification of family planning services efforts and activities to improve knowledge, acceptance and practice (KAP) of family planning; increase in human capital development through quality education; introduction of conditional cash transfers and expenditures (for education, for example) as effective safety nets;  encouraging productivity and access in both farm and non-farm occupations; designing policies to promote long-term employment; geographic targeted programs (especially in the Northwest and rural areas); multi-dimensional empowerment of the poor; and an effective broad policy framework that will increase opportunities, enhance capabilities, promote security, and engender empowerment and participation.Read more
Economic Brief - Reforming the Energy Sector in Africa: the Case Study of Nigeria
06/03/2012 14:02
Economic Brief - Reforming the Energy Sector in Africa: the Case Study of Nigeria
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