2013

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Working Paper 192 - Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Credit in Africa: Any Role for Institutional Factors
24/12/2013
Working Paper 192 - Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Credit in Africa: Any Role for Institutional Factors
A strong and efficient agricultural sector has the potential to enable a country feed its growing population, generate employment, earn foreign exchange and provide raw materials for industries. It is however ironical that...Read more
Authors:Adeleke Salami, Damilola Felix Arawomo
Working Paper 190 - Early Warning Systems and Systemic Banking Crises in Low Income Countries: A Multinomial Logit Approach
23/12/2013
Working Paper 190 - Early Warning Systems and Systemic Banking Crises in Low Income Countries: A Multinomial Logit Approach
The global financial crisis has stimulated new interest in models aimed at providing early warning about the risk of a systemic banking crisis based on early warning systems (EWSs). While most of the focus has been on advanced...Read more
Authors:G. Caggiano, P. Calice, L. Leonida
Working Paper 191 - Do Firms Learn by Exporting or Learn to Export: Evidence from Senegalese Manufacturers’ Plants
23/12/2013
Working Paper 191 - Do Firms Learn by Exporting or Learn to Export: Evidence from Senegalese Manufacturers’ Plants
This paper investigates the link between exports / trade openness and firms’ performance in the Senegalese manufacture sector, using a rich and unique firm-level panel data spanning the period 1998-2011. The data has been...Read more
Authors:Cisse Fatou, Ji Eun Choi
Working Paper 189 - An Empirical Investigation of the Taylor Curve in South Africa
23/12/2013
Working Paper 189 - An Empirical Investigation of the Taylor Curve in South Africa
Heightened uncertainty and slow growth following the financial crisis have raised expectations about the role of monetary policy in stimulating growth. At the same time, South Africa’s economy has been subject to a number of...Read more
Authors:E. Ndou, N. Gumata, M. Ncube, E. Olson
Working Paper 188 - Remittances and their Macroeconomic Impact: Evidence from Africa
23/12/2013
Working Paper 188 - Remittances and their Macroeconomic Impact: Evidence from Africa
Over the past decade, remittances to Africa and developing countries through formal channels grew rapidly, due to increased migration and reduced transaction costs. Currently, remittances are the largest international flow of...Read more
Authors:Mthuli Ncube, Zuzana Brixiova
Working Paper 187 - The Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia
23/12/2013
Working Paper 187 - The Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia
A real exchange rate that is broadly aligned with its equilibrium value is an important part of a country’s macroeconomic and external competitiveness framework. Persistently misaligned real exchange rates can cause a...Read more
Authors:Z. Brixiova, B. Égert, T. Hadj Amor Essid
Working Paper 186 - Balancing Development Returns and Credit Risks: Evidence from the AfDB’s Experience
23/12/2013
Working Paper 186 - Balancing Development Returns and Credit Risks: Evidence from the AfDB’s Experience
The objective of this paper is to shed light on the workings of project quality-at-entry frameworks used by development finance institutions during their project appraisal to measure the expected developmental returns of...Read more
Authors:Y. Arvanitis, M. Stampini, D. Vencatachellum
Working Paper 185 - Remittances and the Voter Turnout in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Macro and Micro Level Data
23/12/2013
Working Paper 185 - Remittances and the Voter Turnout in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Macro and Micro Level Data
For many developing countries including in Sub-Saharan Africa, international remittance flows represent a large and stable source of external finance. Recent empirical studies using Sub-Saharan African data have demonstrated the...Read more
Authors:Christian Ebeke, Thierry Yogo
Working Paper 184 - Does Oil Wealth Affect Democracy in Africa?
23/12/2013
Working Paper 184 - Does Oil Wealth Affect Democracy in Africa?
This paper empirically investigates the effects of oil wealth on democracy in Africa. This is because democracy provides a check on governmental power and limits the potential of public officials to amass personal wealth and to...Read more
Authors:John C. Anyanwu, Andrew E. O. Erhijakpor
Working Paper 183 - Global Economic Spillovers to Africa- A GVAR Approach
23/09/2013
Working Paper 183 - Global Economic Spillovers to Africa- A GVAR Approach
In this paper, we develop a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, with 46 African and 30 foreign countries covering 90% of the world GDP, to examine the growth spillovers coming from the Euro zone and BRICs. To our...Read more
Authors:Daniel Zerfu Gurara, Mthuli Ncube
Working Paper 179 - Heterogeneity of the Effects of Aid on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan: Comparative Evidence from Stable and Post-Conflict Countries
22/09/2013
Working Paper 179 - Heterogeneity of the Effects of Aid on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan: Comparative Evidence from Stable and Post-Conflict Countries
L’Afrique subsaharienne est la première région du monde bénéficiaire de l’afflux de l’aide extérieure. La communauté internationale a consacré plus de 568 milliards de dollars américains d’aide étrangère au développement de...Read more
Authors:Douzounet Mallaye, Yogo Urbain Thierry
Working Paper 178 - Holding Excess Foreign Reserves Versus Infrastructure Finance: What should Africa do?
24/07/2013
Working Paper 178 - Holding Excess Foreign Reserves Versus Infrastructure Finance: What should Africa do?
Financing infrastructure needs in Africa necessitates new thinking on financing mechanisms. Currently, there is a lively debate on the funding and use of foreign exchange (forex) reserves as one of the funding sources for...Read more
Authors:Cédric Achille Mbeng Mezui, Uche Duru
Working Paper 177 - A Macroeconometric Model for Rwanda
09/07/2013
Working Paper 177 - A Macroeconometric Model for Rwanda
This paper presents a macroeconometric model of Rwanda built to analyze both endogenous and exogenous shocks. The model is developed considering the supply-constrained nature of the economy. On the supply side, total output is...Read more
Authors:Daniel Zerfu Gurara
Working Paper 176 - Medium-Term Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Lesotho
19/06/2013
Working Paper 176 - Medium-Term Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Lesotho
The objective of this paper is to understand whether the current trends in Lesotho’s fiscal policy is sustainable in the short to medium-term and in the event of shocks to key fiscal drivers such as growth, interest rates and...Read more
Authors:Edirisa Nseera
Working Paper 174 - African Development Finance Institutions: Unlocking the Potential
14/06/2013
Working Paper 174 - African Development Finance Institutions: Unlocking the Potential
Africa escaped the recent global financial crisis relatively unscathed. While the region could not avoid the spill-over effects of the ensuing global economic downturn, its banking sector proved generally resilient. This was...Read more
Authors:Pietro Calice
Working Paper 172 - Political Economy of Service Delivery: Monitoring versus Contestation
14/06/2013
Working Paper 172 - Political Economy of Service Delivery: Monitoring versus Contestation
The decentralization of public service delivery often creates local government structures and bureaucracies that fail to deliver the required level of services to local populations. These local government structures involve...Read more
Authors:Kjell Hausken, Mthuli Ncube
Working Paper 173 - Production and Conflict in Risky Elections
14/06/2013
Working Paper 173 - Production and Conflict in Risky Elections
Since the 1980s three major events have shaped the global environment characterising transition to a democratic political system. These are the fall of communism in the late 80s and subsequent democratic election of new leaders;...Read more
Authors:Kjell Hausken, Mthuli Ncube
Working Paper 169 - Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance
19/03/2013
Working Paper 169 - Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance
This paper investigates the effects of contractionary monetary policy and exchange rate appreciation shocks on the South African trade balance using vector autoregressions. Thereafter, we identify the dominant channel between...Read more
Authors:Mthuli Ncube, Eliphas Ndou
Working Paper 168 - Competition and Market Structure in the Zambian Banking Sector
26/02/2013
Working Paper 168 - Competition and Market Structure in the Zambian Banking Sector
This study evaluates the degree of competition in the Zambian banking sector in the wake of dynamic market shifts induced by entry of new foreign banks and privatisation of the state-owned bank. Using an unbalanced panel of bank...Read more
Authors:Anthony Musonda Simpasa
Working Paper 167 - Promoting Economic Reforms in Developing Countries Rethinking Budgetary Aid?
26/02/2013
Working Paper 167 - Promoting Economic Reforms in Developing Countries Rethinking Budgetary Aid?
This paper aims to contribute to the current debate on budget support by exploring approaches likely to strengthen the linkages between budget support and reforms in the recipient countries. In this regard, the paper introduces...Read more
Authors:Ferdinand Bakoup