Travaux de recherches

21-aoû-2019

Working Paper 324 - Public Investment, Time-to-Build, and Fiscal Stimulus

We study the macroeconomic impacts of public investment surges and fiscal policy adjustments to debt-financed public investment using a neoclassical growth model. We focus on two important issues that are pervasive in publicly financed investment projects in low-income countries: gestation delays and public investment inefficiencies. The model is estimated for a typical low-income country. Three central messages emerge. First, assumptions about which fiscal instruments may adjust to stabilize debt are crucial for the ultimate impacts of changes in fiscal policy. Covering the cost of the...
21-aoû-2019

Working Paper 323 - Mobile Financial and Banking Services Development in Africa

Using a new database for mobile financial & banking services across countries, we analyze pro-poor and inclusive growth in developing countries and show the importance of mobile financial & banking development. This paper uses several econometric techniques to investigate mobile finance & banking benchmarking, determinants, and real impacts on inclusive growth in developing countries in Africa. The statistical benchmarking analysis reveals that there is a positive link between mobile banking development and economic development. Estimation of our model, using different...
21-aoû-2019

Working Paper 322 - Managing Natural Resource Revenue in Ghana

It is well recognized that infrastructure investment is vital for growth. However, its financial implications could be huge, which could not be met by traditional sources of financing only. Using a general equilibrium model applied to Ghana, this paper combines four fiscal rules for managing oil revenue for public investment spending: i) the government combines both oil proceeds and borrowing (baseline experiment); ii) the government saves all oil proceeds and resort to borrowing (Bird-in-Hand experiment); iii) the government invests all oil proceeds and does not borrow (Hand-to-Mouth...
20-aoû-2019

Working Paper 321 - Determinants of Antenatal Care Utilization in Nigeria

The study examines the determinants of antenatal care Utilization in Nigeria. Determinants of antenatal care utilization were categorized into economic and non-economic determinants. Estimates of the determinants of antenatal care utilization were derived from two-part model analysis using five rounds of Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) from 1990 to 2013. Previous studies have used one or two rounds of surveys to estimate the determinants of antenatal care utilization using logit or count data (poison, negative binomial) model. However, health care utilization consist of two...
20-aoû-2019

Working Paper 320 - Hands Off Oil Revenues?Public Investment and Cash Transfers

Many resource-rich countries fare little better than their resource-poor counterparts because windfall income is often associated with misuses. We develop a small open-economy DSGE model to explore the policy response to oil windfall in Kenya, focusing on a scenario of transferring the resource revenues entirely to households versus two alternative fiscal rules: all-investing and sustainable investing. Our results show that transfers to households are welfare-improving while containing the pressure on public investment efficiency. However, the overall impact on the economy is negligible. The...
20-aoû-2019

Working Paper 316 - Resilience to Diverse Shocks and Stressors in Niger and Ethiopia

The concept of development resilience has become increasingly popular in recent years, in both research and policy circles. The primary regions of focus for resilience analysis and programming are those with both chronic and cyclical problems with food insecurity, that are susceptible to climate volatility (most commonly drought) as well as other shocks and stressors. This research focuses in on two countries that epitomize these concerns–Niger and Ethiopia – and examines the influence of climate and other shocks on indicators on wellbeing through a resilience lens. In particular, we explore...
20-aoû-2019

Working Paper 315 - Temperature and Children’s Nutrition: Evidence from West Africa

Wasting and stunting rates have been falling in sub-Saharan Africa since 2000 due to concerted efforts to improve children’s nutrition. However, this progress is at risk of faltering due to rising temperatures across the continent. High temperatures can affect children’s nutrition through heat stress, decreased agricultural production, and increased disease. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that temperatures above 30oC negatively affect children’s nutritional status as measured by standardized anthropometric measures. To do so, we merge anthropometric data from the publicly available...
20-aoû-2019

Working Paper 318 - A DGE Model for Growth and Development Planning: Malawi

It was Margaret Thatcher who said, “plan your work for today and every day, then work your plan". Yet many national development plans in Africa have failed because they were either not well planned or the plans were not well worked out. We present a fully specified medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model that can be used as the macroeconomic framework for development planning. Structural peculiarities of low-income developing economies are emphasized, including limited access to credit markets by households, a prominent natural resource sector, limited labour and capital mobility,...
20-aoû-2019

Working Paper 319 - Performance de la microfinance en Afrique de l'Ouest

Le présent document analyse le lien entre la pérennité financière, l’étendue et la profondeur de la portée sociale d’institutions de microfinance appartenant à l’Union économique et monétaire ouest africaine (UEMOA). L’analyse est effectuée sur des données de panel de la période 2000 à 2014 à l’aide d’un modèle à équations simultanées dynamiques. Des résultats obtenus, il ressort une relation positive entre la pérennité financière et la profondeur de la portée sociale lorsque toutes les variables qui généralement influencent la pérennité financière sont incluses. D’autre part, relativement...
24-juil-2019

Working Paper 317 - Women Self-Selection out of the Credit Market in Africa

Women are disproportionately disadvantaged in access to finance in Africa. While supply-side detriments, such as high interest rates and collateral requirements, are well documented in the literature, little is understood about how demand-side factors contribute to the observed gender gap in access to finance. This paper provides the first empirical evidence on how women managers’ perception about their creditworthiness contributes to the large gender gap in Africa, particularly in the Northern region. One of the innovations of the paper is introducing a theoretical model using the credit...
22-mai-2019

Working Paper 45 - Commercial Infrastructure in Africa: Potentials and Challenges

The above analysis centered on the commercializing of African infrastructure since the earl, l990s. As revealed by the analysis, African countries were reluctant to privatize infrastructure because of the perceived importance of the sector to the economy. Indeed even when privatization was pursued as second-best to commercialization and performance contracting under public-ownership, it was primarily on the basis of securing private-sector management without having to relinquish control of the entity. But the inability of African countries to overcome the economic down-draft of the Debt...
21-mai-2019

Working Paper 116 - Unlocking Productive Entrepreneurship in Ethiopia: Which Incentives Matter

Twenty years after the launch of market reforms, productive entrepreneurship and vibrant small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Ethiopia remain limited, the recent growth acceleration notwithstanding. This paper first develops a model of entrepreneurial start ups in an economy with frictions in the product and labor markets and a large informal sector, which characterize the Ethiopian institutional landscape. It then examines several mitigating policies that could improve the suboptimal outcomes. The main findings are that search subsidies would be more effective in encouraging...
17-mai-2019

Working Paper 268 - Measuring Resilience to Climate Change in Ethiopia

Resilience comprises anticipative, mitigative, adaptive, reactive, and transformative capacities. This paper pioneer an approach of measuring resilience using the Resilient Capacity Index (RCI) by considering all the dimensions. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to give relevant weights to the different indicators. OLS and censored regression analysis were used to identify determinants of resilience. The findings indicated that HHs living in the same geographic locations have different levels of resilience. The average RCI for highland, midland and lowland were 0.14, 0.116 and 0.037...
22-Feb-2019

Working Paper 308 - The Diaspora and Economic Development in Africa

While the dominant collective belief asserts that brain drain is detrimental to the development of small economies, new studies hold the reverse view. This paper aims at studying the role of the African Diaspora in the economic development of Africa. It analyzes both the overall effect and the specific effect of emigration according to the level of education of emigrants. Then, through a deeper investigation, the paper analyzes the main channels through which the Diaspora influences economic development in Africa. The results show that the African Diaspora contributes positively,...
27-juin-2018

Working Paper 300 - Village Communities and Global Development

Theories of economic development should be based on a general understanding of how communities have been organized in traditional societies. For such a foundation, we consider some insightful observations about traditional autonomous villages and feudal manors by Henry Sumner Maine, a 19thcentury jurist who studied the history of Western law and the problems of India under British rule. Feudalism is the simplest way to integrate villagecommunities into a larger state system, but much of global poverty may be a legacy of feudal statebuilding. Economic development depends on political...
27-juin-2018

Working Paper 301 - Structural Transformation, Deep Downturns, and Government Policy

Most recessions are a result of some shock to the economic system, typically amplified by financial accelerators, and leading to large balance sheet effects of households and firms, which result in the effects persisting. But, over time, the balance sheets get restored. Even banks recover. But episodically, the “shock” is deeper. It is structural. Among advanced countries, the movement from agricultural to manufacturing in the last century, and the more recent movement from manufacturing to the service sector reflect such a large economic transformation. The associated downturns are longer...
04-oct-2017

Working Paper 283 - Mineral Resource Accounting Measures in Africa

Prior to the end of the prolonged commodity boom that led up to the 2008 recession, much was made of the rapid growth in GDP demonstrated by many African countries. The continent’s rising GDPs were held to be heralding a new dawn: a turn in the evolutionary economic downward cycles that had typified many of its economies since the end of the colonial era. The rapid fall in commodity prices as the global recession took hold showed the limitations of these high hopes, and the weak foundations on which some of them had been based. In this paper, we will begin by checking the veracity of this...
04-oct-2017

Working Paper 284 - Growth and Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism in Nigeria

In spite of government counter-terrorism expenditure and efforts, the incidence of terrorism in Nigeria appears to be rising. This paper examines the growth and fiscal consequences of terrorism in Nigeria by estimating the terrorism--macroeconomy relation using different measures of terror incidence. The results show that terrorism has an economically and statistically significant negative impact on growth; although this impact is considerably small and short-lived, manifesting only after a lag of about three years. Specifically, the cost of terrorism to Nigeria, in terms of lost GDP per...
04-oct-2017

Working Paper 285 - Capital Inflows and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study analyzes the effect of capital flows on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa, using a system of generalized methods of moment (GMM) model. It tests the extent to which the level and volatility of capital inflows, both disaggregated and total, affect economic growth. The study finds that portfolio equity has a positive effect on economic growth while private equity and debt are inversely related to growth. However, volatility of portfolio equity and private equity has no impact on economic growth, pointing to low levels of financial integration in these countries. Total capital...
04-oct-2017

Working Paper 286 - Climatic Shocks and Food Security The Role of Foreign Aid

Little is known about the role that foreign aid can play in dampening the effects of climate change. This paper investigates the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of climatic shocks on food security in developing countries. Because foreign aid is an important source of revenue for developing countries, it can enable them to face climatic shocks by mobilizing or stabilizing resources for the financing of agriculture production or food imports. Our results show that foreign aid dampens the effect of climatic shocks on food security. Moreover, the dampening effect is higher for...