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Working Paper 236 - Estimating Development Resilience: A Conditional Moments-Based Approach


Over the past several years, natural disasters, food price and macroeconomic shocks, and conflict have prompted recurring humanitarian emergencies in many of the world’s lowest income countries. In direct response, international development and relief agencies have become preoccupied with the concept of resilience, committing increasingly large amounts of funding, programming, and research toward “building resilience.” They struggle, however, to develop methods to implement the concept empirically so as to guide policy and project design, measure progress, and evaluate interventions. At the same time, the concept of development resilience has the potential to draw together the strengths of several distinct economics literatures on the estimation of stochastic well-being dynamics. The opportunity is thus ripe for methodological contributions to help advance both operational and research agendas.

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