AEC Articles / Presentations


2008 AEC - Constraints in Access to and Demand for Rural Credit: Evidence from Uganda

Like is most developing countries, Uganda’s financial sector is largely underdeveloped and concentrated in urban areas, leaving the majority of the agricultural producers in rural population with no access. However, agriculture forms a significant part of the lives of the rural households, who constitute about 85% of the population. At the macro level, agriculture accounts for about 30 of Gross Domestic Product. This study uses the Uganda household surveys conducted in 1992/93 and 1999/2000 to shed some light on access to, and the characteristics of demand for credit among the rural...

2008 AEC - Rural poverty dynamics and impact of intervention programs upon chronic and transitory poverty in northern Ethiopia

Using a three year panel data set of rural households in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia, we examine the dynamics of poverty and the impact of two intervention measures – the food for work (FFW) and the food security package (FSP) programs – upon poverty by disaggregating total poverty into its transient and chronic components. Poverty in the region is predominantly chronic. Results of matching estimators indicate that the FSP program has a significant negative effect on total and chronic poverty, but not on transient poverty. Households involved in the program have on average lower...

CEA 2008 - Mobilité des capitaux en Afrique du Nord

Le débat sur les vertus de la libre circulation des capitaux en Afrique du Nord soulève des questions extrêmement importantes et controversées. On se demande pourquoi ces pays devraient libéraliser leurs comptes de capital alors que la libre circulation des capitaux est un phénomène relativement récent? Devraient-ils prendre en compte du niveau de développement de leur secteur financier avant d’ouvrir leur compte de capital? Quelles sont les politiques et les reformes à envisager pour assurer le succès de cette ouverture financière? Quelles sont les leçons à tirer de la part des pays qui ont...

2008 AEC -Private Sector Participation in Infrastructure in Africa

In recent years, there has been a profound reassessment of public policy towards the infrastructure sectors globally with a palpable shift in orientation towards private management and ownership. This study appraises the record of private sector participation in infrastructure (PPI) in Africa. The results of almost two decades of regulatory reforms, implementation of the privatization and liberalization agenda, combined with the influx of private investment in infrastructure have decidedly been mixed. There has been a ―policy mistake‖ founded on the dogma that infrastructure would be financed...

AEC 2010 - Environmental Conservation as an Engine for Economic Growth: Testing the Validity of Environmental Kuznets Curve on Carbon Emissions for Kenya

Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis postulates an inverted U-shaped relationship between Carbon dioxide emissions and per capita income. However, the experiences of many countries show that economic growth is causing an increase in resource use and pollution more than it is a solution to environmental problems. The consequences of neglecting environmental conservation can be drastic. This study investigates the role of environmental conservation as an engine for economic growth in Kenya by exploring the relevance of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Using time series data from World...

AEC 2010 - The Effectiveness of Remittances and Foreign Aid in Promoting Savings and Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study investigates the macroeconomic impact of remittances on savings and investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It also analyzes comparatively the effectiveness of remittances and foreign aid (official development assistance) in promoting savings and investment. We use a respective sample of 37 and 34 SSA countries over the period 1980-2004. Using OLS and instrumental variables (2SLS) estimation methods with country fixed-effects, the results suggest that both remittances and foreign aid promote savings and investment in Sub-Saharan Africa, but remittances are strongly more effective....

AEC 2010 - Governance, Financial Liberalization, and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

An analysis of the roles of governance and financial liberalization in the financial development of 37 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries yields several interesting results using data from 1996 to 2008. Contrary to previous studies, financial liberalization did not have a favorable independent impact on financial development; overall, financial liberalization efforts reduced financial development, particularly from 1996 to 2002. But, good governance has improved financial development over time, especially due to reduced political instability. The effect of the origin of legal systems suggests...

AEC 2010 - External Debt Reduction and Economic Growth

Réduction de la dette extérieure et croissance économique dans les pays africains à faible revenu. Download File      AEC 2010 - External Debt Reduction and Economic Growth (1.30 MB)

AEC 2012 - Impact of Improved Agricultural Technology Adoption on Sustainable Rice Productivity and Rural Farmers' Welfare in Nigeria a Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) Technique

This study examined the impact of improved rice varieties adoption on rice productivity and farming households’ welfare in Nigeria using a cross sectional data of 481 rice farmers drawn from three states to represent the major rice producing ecologies (Irrigated, upland and lowland) in Nigeria. Access to seed was found to be one of the significant determinants of adoption. Poverty incidence was also higher among the non-adopters than the adopters. This study also adopted the counterfactual outcomes framework of modern evaluation theory to provide a consistent estimate of the impact....

CEA 2012 - Une croissance économique forte et durable est-elle possible dans un contexte de fuite massive des capitaux en zone Franc Africaine

Cette étude analyse l’effet de la fuite des capitaux sur la croissance économique en zone franc (ZF). Sur la période 1970-2010, la fuite des capitaux réelle de ces pays est trouvée positive et massive avec une ampleur qui s’élève à environ 86,8 ou 80,1 milliards de dollars, représentant 122,1% ou 112,6% du PIB, et 5,3 fois ou 4,9 fois l’investissement. Au même moment, les pays de la ZF ont enregistré des taux d’investissement et de croissance faibles et très volatiles. L’analyse économétrique montre que la fuite des capitaux réduit significativement la croissance économique en ZF et que l’...

2007 AEC - Child Malnutrition in Senegal: Does access to Public Infrastructure Really Matter? A Quantile Regression Analysis

In this paper we analyse the effect of access to public infrastructure, i.e. safe water and health facilities, on child nutritional status defined by height-for-age z-scores in Senegal. Quantile regression methods are used to achieve a more complete picture of the infrastructure effect. This technique has an advantage over the traditional ordinary least squares method as it does not assume a constant effect of the explanatory variables over the entire distribution of the dependent variable. To deal with the potential endogeneity of household expenditures in a child health production function...

AEC 2013 Report - Regional Integration in Africa

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma reviewed the African Union’s 1991 Abuja Treaty designed to promote regional economic integration. She argued that the building blocks of wider economic integration – the eight Regional Economic Communities – have made great progress in strengthening themselves and promoting growth. Five have created customs unions eliminating internal trade barriers. Some lag behind, but all are moving in the right direction. Donald Kaberuka emphasized first that the changing structure of the global economy requires Africa to integrate to survive and, second, that to integrate it...

AEC 2012 - Critical Assessment of the Reflection of African Positions in G20 Decisions - Application of a Methodological Framework

As part of the Global Economic Governance project undertaken by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) in collaboration with the International Development Law Unit at the University of Pretoria, a critical assessment is being made to evaluate how effectively Africa's interests and concerns are directly and indirectly addressed in the G20 processes. The methodology for the critical assessment includes both a quantitative element and a qualitative element. The quantitative dimension looks at the number of times that Africa is referred to explicitly or implicitly in the G20...

AEC 2012 - Panelists

Paul Kagame has been serving as the President of the Republic of Rwanda since 2003, when he won the country’s first ever democratic elections. He was elected to a second seven-year mandate in August 2010. President Kagame had been working as Vice-President and Minister for Defense in the Government of National Unity since 1994, following four years of fighting as the Head of the Rwandan Patriotic Front, which marked the end of the Rwandan genocide. President Kagame currently serves as Chair of the UN Secretary General's Advisory Group on the Millennium Development Goals and as Cochair of the...

AEC 2012 - Market Integration and Transmission of Cereal Price Changes from World Market to Domestic Level


AEC 2012 - Can FDI Foster Inclusive Innovation and Technology Development in Africa

Does the presence of foreign owned firms assure the economy of new production techniques and greater investment in domestic innovation? With the use of innovation indicators for firms provided in the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, we examined the innovative activity of firms in the manufacturing sectors of Kenya and Nigeria. A binary logistic regression model was formulated to assess the likely influence of several firm-specific characteristics on firm’s engagement in product and process innovation. The estimation results indicated that an improvement in domestic firm products and processes...

AEC 2012 - Impacts of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade in Agrifood Products- Evidence from Eastern and Southern Africa

The study analyzed the impacts of regional trade agreements on intra-trade in three selected agrifood products which are maize, rice and wheat in the three regional economic communities (RECs), namely the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC for the period 2005 to 2010. The study relied on two methodologies: statistical analysis and the gravity trade model. Changes in intra-regional trade shares shows that Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe are the four countries whose intra-regional...

AEC 2012 - Rainfall Shocks, Food Prices Vulnerability and Food Security-Evidence for Sub-Saharan African Countries

This paper investigates the effects of rainfall shocks caused by climate change on food security in sub-Saharan Africa (25 countries) compared to developing countries (77 developing countries) over the period 1960-2008. For this purpose, we use panel data and apply econometric methods. Results suggest that rainfall volatility is a factor of food insecurity (through food supply reduction) in developing countries. Moreover, the adverse effects of rainfall shocks are higher in sub-Saharan African than other regions. Second the adverse effects of climatic shocks are exacerbated for countries that...

AEC 2012 - Towards Inclusive African Labour Markets- Empirical Analysis of Gender Equality in Employment and its Implications for Policy

Thus, gender equality in employment is currently one of the greatest development challenges facing countries globally, including those in Africa. In 2011, male employment-to-population ratio, globally, was estimated at about 72.7% compared to female employment-to-population ratio of only 47.9%. For Africa as a whole, male employment-to-population ratio was estimated at about 69.2% compared to female employment-to-population ratio of only 39.2%. In addition to analyzing the characteristics of gender (in)equality in employment in Africa, this paper empirically studies the key drivers of gender...

AEC 2012 - Credit Bureaus and Registries and Access to Finance- New Evidence from 42 African Countries

Using new data from 42 African countries, we investigate the effects of public and private credit registries on firms’ access to finance as well as the effect of public credit registries’ design on the severity of the financing constraint. Our results show that access to finance is on average higher in countries with private credit bureaus (PCBs), relative to countries with public credit registries (PCRs) or countries with neither institution. However, there is a significant heterogeneity in access to finance among countries with PCRs as well as the design of these institutions. We find that...